Sunday, August 31, 2008

Passing Thoughts on the Campaign

The only speech I saw during the Democratic Convention was Obama's speech. It was surprisingly dull. At this point it appears that Obama/ Biden received no bounce from this convention. Following Obama's lackluster speech and McCain's choice of Palin as V.P., if the Republicans run a better convention and handle Hurricane Gustav correctly, then McCain should he leading Obama in all polls soon. McCain has surged in the polls thanks largely to aligning himself to the Conservative base of the GOP. If he keeps it up, he should be the winner in November. It may be said after the election that the defining moment of the campaign was the candidates' separate appearances at the Saddleback Forum. Here Obama stumbled, especially with his "that's above my pay grade remark" concerning when a baby becomes human and thus has rights , and McCain energized the Conservative wing with his answers, followed up by choosing a reliably pro-life running mate.

All the pundits may proclaim Mrs. Clinton the Democratic front runner in 2012 if Obama loses, yet I am not so sure. For every disaffected Clinton supporter, there will be one Obama supporter blaming her for the loss. It is highly unlikely that she or Bill will campaign hard for Obama, and so the resentment against both Clintons will increase if the GOP wins. Also, now that she has lost this year, she will never look like the inevitable winner she appeared to be for so long. Other Democrats will be emboldened to challenge her.

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